
At the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, President Javier Milei announced that Argentina's export duty on wheat and barley will fall from 7.5% to 5.5% from June. He also outlined a gradual soybean duty reduction of 0.25 to 0.50 percentage points per month from January 2027 to 2028, conditional on tax revenue and the 2027 election result.
Lower Argentine export duties on wheat, barley and eventually soybeans would make Argentine exports cheaper and more competitive, adding supply to world markets and pressuring international prices. The soybean cut is conditional and years away, so the near-term effect is modest.
After 122 past bearish policy events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.2%), and +0.4% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 223 past bearish policy events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.2%), and -0.6% over 20.
After 369 past bearish policy events, Soybeans moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.