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Producers in Mato Grosso report rain arriving sporadically, and soybean leaves are curling under intense heat. NASA soil-moisture estimates show 87% of the state under water deficit as of November 11, with almost half under extreme deficit, and drier conditions also in Bahia and Tocantins.
Conab says no significant yield loss is currently visible in Brazil, though some areas may fall short of projections.
Dry soil during soybean planting and early development in Brazil's main producing state raises the risk of yield shortfalls that could tighten soybean meal supply and support prices. Conab's current view of no major loss limits the near-term price impact.
theagribiz.comCelso OliveiraNov 11, 2026After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
