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Climate Impact Company's soil moisture analysis shows Brazil and central Argentina trending drier over the past three months, while the northern Great Plains are wetter and India is in a record monsoon. The dryness is linked to cooler-than-normal SSTs off South America and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole.
Drying in Brazil and Argentina during planting raises the risk of yield shortfalls for soybeans, corn and meal exports, which supports South American oilseed and feed prices.
climateimpactcompany.comScott YuknisNov 7, 2019After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
