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Climate Impact Company reports that 73.7% of the US is in dry-to-drought conditions, with D3 extreme drought in key Corn Belt states. A transition from La Niña to El Niño is expected in mid-to-late 2026.
Analog years 1997 and 2023 point to worsening drought risk in Iowa and the Gulf States for June through September.
A forecast of worsening summer drought in Iowa and the Gulf States would raise the risk of crop losses and lift corn and soybean prices. The analogs are preliminary and only a few years, so the signal is uncertain.
climateimpactcompany.comScott YuknisFeb 22, 2026After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
