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Climate models favored a wetter Brazilian spring, driven by developing La Nina and tropical Atlantic warmth, but La Nina development is not agreed across models. Brazil's ongoing drought affects all crop areas, and the 2021 drought is larger than last year's.
If the wetter forecast fails, continued drought in Brazil's main crop areas would tighten soybean and corn supplies and support prices.
climateimpactcompany.comScott YuknisSep 2, 2021After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
