
Rabobank expects a major impact on the fishmeal market from the cancellation of Peru's anchovy season. Analysts are comparing the situation with the 2023 crisis, when collapsing supplies pushed fishmeal and fish oil prices sharply higher and strained aquafeed producers.
A 2023-style supply shock would raise fishmeal and fish oil prices and increase feed formulation costs. Buyers may shift to soybean meal and other protein sources, supporting those markets.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 453 past bullish weather events, SBM moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.