The USDA's latest outlook raises 2026/27 US soybean production by 12 million bushels to 4.6 billion and exports by 25 million bushels, while ending stocks fall 15 million to 300 million bushels. The season-average price is raised by $0.10 to $12.10 per bushel.
Global soybean production is cut to 442.5 million tonnes and global ending stocks fall 0.8 million tonnes to 123.5 million tonnes.
Higher US exports and a smaller global stock cushion tighten the soybean balance, which supports futures and the price outlook for soybean meal and oil buyers. Rising US production partly offsets the tightness, so the net effect is firmer prices rather than a sharp rally.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 414 past bullish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.