
USDA's November WASDE cut the US soybean yield from 51.9 to 50.7 bushels per acre and reduced 2020/21 supplies by 98 million bushels. Ending stocks fell 100 million bushels to 190 million, the lowest since 2013, and the season-average farm price was raised to $10.40.
The lower yield and ending stocks signal a tighter US soybean balance sheet, supporting soybean and soybean meal prices for feed buyers.
After 747 past bullish report events, SOY moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 414 past bullish report events, SBM moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.