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The US Climate Prediction Center is expected to officially declare a Super El Niño within hours. The event requires Pacific equatorial water temperatures at least 2 degrees Celsius above average for three consecutive months.
Forecasters expect it to persist through winter and end in spring 2027, when La Niña conditions are forecast to take over.
A strong El Niño raises the risk of drought in parts of Asia, Australia and southern Africa and of uneven rainfall in South America, which can tighten supplies of grains, oilseeds and feed ingredients and support prices.
foxweather.comHayley VawterNov 11, 2026After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 181 past bullish weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.9%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
