According to WSJ-cited reporting, no tankers carrying Russian diesel have reached US shores, as all reported vessels changed course. US buyers reportedly pulled back over legal and reputational risks of purchasing Russian-origin fuel.
Losing an incremental diesel import source tightens the Atlantic Basin distillate balance, which can support ULSD prices and crack spreads, with some spillover to crude. The impact on feed ingredients is indirect, mainly through diesel and freight costs.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.