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A tanker reportedly hit a mine east of the Strait of Hormuz and caught fire, and a limited fire was reported on Saudi Arabia's East-West Petroline near Medina. Persian Gulf crude loadings slipped back below 10 mb/d, and global visible oil inventories fell sharply since March, while Ukraine struck Russia's Ust-Luga port.
Renewed Hormuz disruption and tighter crude inventories support diesel and energy costs, which feed into freight and feed production costs. Bullish for diesel and crude, with knock-on upward pressure on biodiesel and fuel-linked feedstock prices.
globalbiodiesel.comHenri BardonNov 11, 2026After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
