
Red diesel in Great Britain averaged 108.6p per litre for a 5,000-litre delivery, down about 6p from the previous week. The decline followed a sharp fall in Brent crude as expectations of further US strikes on Iran eased, although prices edged higher again amid uncertainty over negotiations and shipping risks.
Lower crude prices reduce farm fuel costs and can ease pressure on crop production and transport expenses. Continued uncertainty over Iran and Strait of Hormuz shipping could limit the decline or renew upward pressure on diesel.
After 51 past bearish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -8.2% to +3.9%), and -2.3% over 20.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.