
European gas and power markets stabilized midweek after near-term gas contracts hit one-month lows on Monday. Day-ahead power prices spiked as wind generation fell sharply, while Brent and Europe’s TTF gas benchmark remained below levels seen two weeks earlier; markets continued to weigh the prospect of an Iran peace settlement despite ongoing tanker attacks and low European gas storage.
Expectations of reduced conflict risk have pressured oil and gas prices, but continued shipping disruption and low storage could limit further declines and leave supply-sensitive markets volatile. Weak wind output also tightened prompt power supply.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 15 past bearish geopolitics events, Natural Gas moved a median -1.1% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -9.2% to +2.4%), and +4.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.