Dollar at R$5.58 amid Copom minutes and strong U.S. CPI; flows are today’s focus

After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.

• Jun 28, 2018How a Rising U.S. Dollar Puts Argentina's and Brazil's Economies at Risk+1.8%
• Apr 25, 2022Brazilian real tumbles amid rallying dollar and local tensions+3.5%
• Dec 9, 2021Strong dollar weighs on Latin American currencies | Financial Post+3.1%
• Sep 23, 2024Dollar rises more than 1% at the start of a week marked by inflation data in Brazil and the US | Brasil 247-1.1%
• Oct 13, 2021From Turkey to South Korea, strong dollar squeezes the energy-poor - Nikkei Asia+0.4%

After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Aug 28, 2026Dollar Strength and Increased Middle East Oil Flows Weigh on Crude Prices+9.2%
• Oct 30, 2018Poloz helped the Loonie, but a weak Crude Oil and a strong USD dollar index are not - OFX (US)-5.8%
• Oct 18, 2018Ringgit snaps 2-day gaining streak to end lower vs US dollar | FMT-4.3%
• Jul 19, 2018Dollar and gold falters as Trump hits fed, stocks drop: markets wrap - MINING.COM+2.5%
• Dec 1, 2020Canadian dollar strengthens as economy grows at a record pace - The Globe and Mail+1.1%

After 312 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.

• Sep 19, 2019Ringgit at 4.15 to US dollar at end of 2019, says MIDF Research | Malay Mail-2.4%
• May 18, 2023Oil prices settle down 1%; strong US data boosts dollar | Reuters+1.6%
• Feb 2, 2018Oil prices fall as US stock market slumps and dollar strengthens-6.3%
• Oct 2, 2023Oil tumbles 2% to 3-week low on strong dollar, profit taking-9.8%
• Feb 2, 2023Oil slumps on economic data, stronger U.S. dollar+2.9%