Oil prices were little changed near recent lows as traders weighed hopes of a US-Israeli-Iran de-escalation against attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. A tanker was struck off Oman, and Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Navy said two tankers had caught fire after hitting mines on an unauthorized route.
Ongoing attacks and uncertainty over mine clearance, insurance and shipowners’ willingness to transit threaten oil flows through a key route, limiting downside for crude prices.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.