
Crude futures jumped about 10% on April 2, 2020, after Trump said he expected Saudi Arabia and Russia to reach a deal soon to end their price war. Brent rose 11.36% to $27.55 and WTI gained 10% to $22.34.
US crude stockpiles posted their biggest weekly rise since 2016.
Expectations of a Saudi-Russia production deal support crude prices and energy input costs. Rising US crude stockpiles are a bearish offset that limits the rally.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Describes the same April 2 truce-hope rally, though at an earlier intraday magnitude; contributes to sentiment-driven short covering.
Reports an intraday ~10% jump on truce hopes, part of the April 2 surge.
Intraday rally of about 10% on truce hopes was part of the April 2 surge.
Describes the April 2 rally on truce hopes, though the magnitude cited is smaller than final settlement.
Describes the same April 2 truce-hopes rally with Trump's comments, though with smaller figures than the final settlement.