USDA sharply increased forecasts for global wheat production and stocks, including for Ukraine, but quotes rose

After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.

• Dec 11, 2025USDA sharply raises global barley production forecast, putting pressure on prices-0.3%
• Jan 15, 2026USDA raises projections for US, global wheat ending stocks | World Grain-1.3%
• Feb 9, 2022USDA cuts global ending stocks for beans, wheat, cotton and corn - Pro Farmer+0.4%
• Mar 8, 2024PF Report Reaction: USDA cuts global ending stocks for corn, soybeans, wheat and cotton - Pro Farmer-7.4%
• Dec 12, 2022Wheat prices fall despite a downgrade in the USDA’s global production forecast+10.5%

After 138 past bearish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.9% to +2.4%), and +0.5% over 20.

• Jan 15, 2026USDA raises projections for US, global wheat ending stocks | World Grain+0.7%
• Sep 18, 2025US wheat futures slip after USDA boosts global ending stocks-1.8%
• Dec 19, 2025USDA lifts 2025-26 global wheat stocks forecast as higher output offsets record demand+3.2%
• Jan 12, 2023Corn and soybean production down in 2022, USDA reports Corn stocks down, soybean stocks down from year earlier Winter Wheat Seedings up for 2023+1.2%
• Aug 13, 2024Despite lower production and inventory forecasts in the USDA report, wheat exchange prices fell-1.4%