Oil prices moved higher on Wednesday after falling sharply in the previous session, with Brent near $92 and WTI above $86. The market weighed hopes that the Iran conflict could ease against attacks on ships and continued uncertainty over a lasting agreement.
Attacks on shipping raise the risk of disruption to oil flows and support crude, while easing conflict could restore supply and cap prices.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.