
USDA’s November 2026 WASDE raised global ending stocks for wheat, coarse grains, and rice, while trimming wheat and corn trade forecasts. It reduced global soybean ending stocks and raised U.S. soybean exports and the season-average price; it also cited conflict-related shipment disruptions in the Black Sea for lower Russian and Ukrainian wheat exports and lower Ukrainian corn exports.
Higher stocks and reduced trade forecasts weigh on grain prices by easing perceived supply tightness. Lower soybean stocks and stronger U.S. export prospects are supportive for soybeans, while Black Sea shipment disruptions add supply risk for wheat and corn.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 87 past bearish report events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.4%), and +1.1% over 20.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.