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El Niño has returned and has more than an 80% chance of ranking among the strongest events since reliable monitoring began. The U.S. outlook favors wetter autumn conditions in parts of the South and Four Corners region, while the Pacific Northwest may be warmer and drier; lingering drought has left poor rangeland conditions and low reservoirs in some areas.
The shifting rainfall pattern could affect pasture, water availability, and crop conditions across U.S. regions, but the outlook is probabilistic and does not establish a clear nationwide supply shock or price direction.
irrigationtoday.orgNov 10, 2026After 2,467 past weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.7%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 1,964 past weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,773 past weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 361 past weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
