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The WMO's June 2 El Niño/La Niña update gives an 80% probability that El Niño emerges in June to August 2026, rising to about 90% through late 2026. Most models suggest at least a moderate event, possibly strong, with heavy rain and drought expected in different regions.
The outlook is a broad climate signal rather than a crop-specific shock, but it raises the odds of drought in some grain and oilseed regions and flooding in others. This adds weather risk premium to feed commodities over the coming months.
wmo.intJun 2, 2026After 2,467 past weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.7%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 1,964 past weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,773 past weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 361 past weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The WMO's 2 June update raised the El Niño probability to 80%, which raises the risk of dry weather cutting palm yields in Southeast Asia and supports prices on the day.
