
Meteorologist Eric Snodgrass says La Niña is collapsing faster than he has seen in his career, with El Niño building and Pacific temperatures possibly 1.5°C above normal. Forecast models point to widespread summer rains across much of the US, though drought remains a concern in the Plains.
A rapid transition to El Niño could change US summer rainfall and Plains drought risk, which affects corn and soybean yield expectations. Mixed rainfall forecasts keep the price signal limited for now.
After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.