Dollar rises and remains above R$5.50 with Copom minutes and US inflation in focus

After 487 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.0%), and +1.5% over 20.

• Aug 11, 2022Canadian dollar rises to two-month high on growing signs of easing U.S. inflation - The Globe and Mail-4.1%
• May 11, 2021Commodity currencies hold advantage as dollar waits for inflation and Fed | Reuters+2.0%
• May 26, 2021Equities, dollar rise as Fed officials downplay inflation concerns+3.9%
• Jul 29, 2024Oil rises from six-week low with Chinese demand, OPEC+ in focus - Moneyweb-4.6%
• Jul 27, 2017FOMC Deflates Dollar Inflates Oil And Gold - ActionForex+2.0%

After 323 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -2.9% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.

• May 11, 2021Commodity currencies hold advantage as dollar waits for inflation and Fed | Reuters+1.6%
• May 26, 2021Equities, dollar rise as Fed officials downplay inflation concerns+3.3%
• Jul 29, 2024Oil rises from six-week low with Chinese demand, OPEC+ in focus - Moneyweb-4.5%
• Jul 27, 2017FOMC Deflates Dollar Inflates Oil And Gold - ActionForex+3.4%
• Oct 22, 2020Goldman Sachs: Commodities bull market ahead on dollar, inflation risk-5.9%

After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.

• Aug 1, 2025Dollar rises while global stock index falls; inflation and tariffs in focus-1.0%
• Aug 27, 2025AUD/USD slides to near 0.6470 as US Dollar gains, PCE Inflation in focus-0.0%
• Aug 30, 2024US dollar rises broadly as inflation data underpins smaller Fed cut+0.2%
• Jul 27, 2024Chinese yuan hits eight-month low with missed inflation data and US dollar rebound | FX Blue-0.2%
• Dec 31, 2025US Dollar Index rises to near 98.50 as FOMC Minutes hint at pausing rate cuts+0.3%

After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.

• Sep 23, 2024Dollar rises more than 1% at the start of a week marked by inflation data in Brazil and the US | Brasil 247-1.1%
• Oct 30, 2025Dollar rises against the real, still influenced by Fed decision | Brasil 247+0.2%
• Nov 19, 2025Dollar rises in the Brazilian market following international movement | Brasil 247+1.3%
• Sep 8, 2023Why the US Fed's interest rate pause is a win for dollar bulls | The National-2.2%
• Mar 29, 2023BCB remains on a collision course with the government, BRL at risk – Commerzbank: Analytics and Market news from 29 March 2023 13:55-1.5%