
The U.S. dollar gained on Friday after a key inflation measure matched forecasts and personal spending and income rose. The data supported expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by a smaller 25 basis points next month rather than 50.
A firmer dollar makes US commodities pricier for importers and can pressure dollar-denominated grain and oilseed prices. A smaller expected Fed cut slightly reduces the case for a weaker dollar.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.