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Commerzbank economists say risks to the Brazilian real remain high despite a hawkish central bank, as the government's criticism of monetary policy makes the central bank's job harder. They also flag ongoing back-and-forth over the fiscal framework and possible revision of the inflation target.
Currency weakness in the real raises the cost of imported feed inputs for Brazil and can make Brazilian soybean meal and corn exports more competitive, pressuring global feed prices.
teletrade.orgMar 29, 2023After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 117 past bearish macro events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
