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Commerzbank says the real could weaken further if the government tries to influence monetary policy during June talks on the 2026 inflation target. It expects the central bank's first rate cut at its August meeting, while Fed cut expectations have been pushed back.
A weaker real tends to favor Brazilian exporters of soybeans, corn and meal, but this is an analyst view on currency direction rather than a supply event.
teletrade.orgMay 31, 2023After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
