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Commerzbank analysts said the Brazilian real fell sharply after central bank minutes sounded more dovish than the rate decision statement. They warned the real would weaken further if the central bank delayed rate cuts amid government criticism, while noting real rates above 9% still attract capital.
Currency weakness in Brazil makes its soybean and corn exports more competitive, while a delay in cuts would reverse that and support dollar-priced grain values.
octaafrica.netJun 29, 2023After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 50 past neutral macro events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
