
US heating oil futures fell to about $4.18 per gallon, their lowest level since late August, as expectations for further Middle East diplomacy eased fears of renewed attacks on Iran. Distillate inventories fell 3.6 million barrels in the week ended October 30 and remained 13% below the five-year average, while Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure raised concerns about fuel production and exports.
Lower perceived geopolitical risk pressured heating oil, while low inventories and possible disruption to Russian fuel supply limit downside and signal tight distillate availability. The move may affect diesel and crude-linked costs, but no direct feed commodity price effect is established.
After 51 past bearish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -8.2% to +3.9%), and -2.3% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.