Peace talks get underway, grain exports still constrained

After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.

• May 26, 2022Black Sea ports still the best way to get Ukraine's grain moving fast | Reuters-1.9%
• Feb 25, 2022Grain exporters tap EU supplies as war shuts Ukraine ports -traders+9.4%
• Aug 25, 2026Grain exports stall as Ukraine steps up attacks on Russia+1.7%
• Mar 17, 2023Russia Still Slow-Walking Ukraine Food Exports in Black Sea Grain Deal-3.7%
• Dec 17, 2025Ukraine's grain exports curbed as Russian strikes shut terminals+0.8%

After 72 past bullish geopolitics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +2.5%), and -1.0% over 20.

• Apr 4, 2022Grains gain as peace hopes fade in Ukraine – The Seam+6.7%
• Mar 30, 2022Failing Ukrainian, Russian peace talks drive up grain futures - Brownfield Ag News-0.7%
• Apr 15, 2022Ukraine says grain on ships in blocked Black Sea ports may deteriorate | Reuters+2.0%
• Sep 26, 2026Argentina set for near-record farm dollar windfall as global supply shocks lift grain exports - Markets - Business Recorder-3.1%
• Jul 15, 2026Wheat Skyrockets as Black Sea Exports Threatened, Pulling up Corn and Soybeans - AgWeb+1.0%

After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.

• May 26, 2022Black Sea ports still the best way to get Ukraine's grain moving fast | Reuters-4.6%
• Feb 25, 2022Grain exporters tap EU supplies as war shuts Ukraine ports -traders+6.6%
• Mar 17, 2023Russia Still Slow-Walking Ukraine Food Exports in Black Sea Grain Deal-1.0%
• Dec 17, 2025Ukraine's grain exports curbed as Russian strikes shut terminals+1.1%
• Aug 3, 2023Ukraine struggles to export its grain — as Russia repeatedly strikes its ports : NPR-0.6%