
The euro held recent gains against the dollar as traders awaited US CPI data. Improved risk appetite amid reported progress toward ending the Middle East conflict and a sharp decline in oil prices supported the euro, while October inflation and strong US jobs and GDP figures remained in focus.
Lower oil prices can ease the energy-import burden for the euro area and support the euro, while a stronger euro may reduce the local cost of dollar-priced feed imports. The effect depends on US inflation data and the resulting dollar response.
After 388 past bullish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.1%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 312 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.