
Funds moved from near-record short to near-record long positions in soybeans and soymeal after a USDA report cut Argentina's soybean crop forecast by 2.5 million tonnes to 56.5 million. Soybean futures hit the daily limit, and soymeal reached its highest since 2014.
Lower South American supply and expected record Chinese imports push soybean and meal prices higher, with buyers likely turning to U.S. supplies.
After 747 past bullish report events, SOY moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 414 past bullish report events, SBM moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, CORN moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.