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The IEA cut its 2022 world oil demand forecast by 1.3 mb/d for 2Q-4Q22 due to sanctions on Russia and surging commodity prices. It warned that about 3 mb/d of Russian output could be shut in from April, and that only Saudi Arabia and the UAE hold substantial spare capacity.
A potential loss of 3 mb/d of Russian supply is a major supply shock that supports crude and energy costs, raising input costs for feed production and freight.
ahdb.org.ukMar 14, 2022
iea.orgMar 16, 2022After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 40 past neutral report events, Natural Gas moved a median +1.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -3.5% to +2.8%), and +4.5% over 20.
After 131 past bullish report events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.3% to +3.4%), and +2.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
IEA warning that about 3 mb/d of Russian output could be shut in from April raised supply risk and supported distillate prices.
