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The IEA's December oil market report projects world oil demand growth accelerating from 840 kb/d in 2024 to 1.1 mb/d in 2025, reaching 103.9 mb/d. It also reports global supply rising 130 kb/d in November to 103.4 mb/d, led by recovery in Libya and Kazakhstan.
Faster demand growth alongside steady supply points to a firmer crude balance, which supports energy costs for feed production, transport and fertilizer inputs.
After 131 past bullish report events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.3% to +3.4%), and +2.9% over 20.
After 116 past bullish report events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.3% over 5 sessions (66% higher; middle half -1.0% to +3.1%), and +2.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
