1.1100: Key support level for EUR/USD in countdown to US CPI data

After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Jun 19, 2017Corn use for ethanol begins to slow down-4.1%
• Nov 19, 2025Canadian dollar falls the most in four months after key US data cancelled | Reuters-5.1%
• Nov 16, 2016Euro keeps spiraling down despite downbeat U.S. data+4.8%
• Mar 30, 2020Coronavirus: Oil price collapses to lowest level for 18 years - BBC News+64.1%
• Jun 28, 2022USD/CAD to enjoy substantial gains towards 1.33 in early 2023 – CIBC — Octa-9.0%

After 388 past bullish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.1%), and +0.1% over 20.

• Oct 1, 2025Euro Heads for Highest in Four Years With $1.20 Level in Sight-0.5%
• May 23, 2017Economic prospects to maintain support for the euro | Capital Economics-0.5%
• May 31, 2017EUR/USD Eurozone Inflation Data to Overshadow EU’s Political Concerns - Currency Live+0.7%
• Sep 30, 2018DXY to come off: we like to buy into any dip below 1.1550 in EUR/USD - Nordea - Forex Crunch-1.0%
• Feb 27, 2024EUR/USD: Euro May Be Out of Reasons to Go Up After CPI Data | tastylive+0.1%

After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.

• Oct 1, 2025Euro Heads for Highest in Four Years With $1.20 Level in Sight+0.3%
• Sep 30, 2025FX Today: Focus shifts to inflation in Europe and US ADP, ISM data+0.1%
• May 23, 2017Economic prospects to maintain support for the euro | Capital Economics+0.0%
• Sep 30, 2018DXY to come off: we like to buy into any dip below 1.1550 in EUR/USD - Nordea - Forex Crunch+0.7%
• Jul 2, 2020What keeps driving USD down and CNY well-supported?-0.5%