
The euro fell for an eighth straight session to an 11-month low at 1.0695 despite weak US producer price data. Markets are pricing a 75% chance of a December Fed rate hike, and EIA data showed a 5.3 million barrel rise in US crude stocks.
Expectations of Fed tightening keep the dollar firm, which weighs on dollar-denominated feed commodities; the crude inventory build adds bearish pressure on energy.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 533 past bearish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.2%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.