
Gold and silver rose in late US trading as the dollar weakened and crude oil prices fell amid renewed hopes for a diplomatic resolution to the US-Iran conflict. Lower oil prices eased some inflation concerns ahead of the US consumer price report, while strong employment data continued to support expectations for a possible December Fed rate increase.
Lower crude prices can reduce energy and transport costs, while dollar and rate expectations may affect the cost of internationally traded feed inputs. The report gives no direct feed-commodity price signal beyond the crude move.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 33 past bearish geopolitics events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.5% to +0.2%), and -0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.