
The International Grains Council cut its 2026–27 global wheat production forecast by 3 million tonnes to 789 million tonnes, citing adverse weather in key growing regions. Lower output expectations in Canada, the United States, and Russia contrast with a forecast for steady global consumption.
A smaller crop estimate alongside steady demand tightens the expected global wheat balance and could support wheat prices and alter trade flows.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.