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A report launched at COP31 by Türkiye’s Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry and IFAD estimates that a severe El Niño could cause $11 trillion in lost country income over the next five to six years. It also describes how 2026 energy and fertilizer shocks raised costs across food production, processing and distribution, particularly for small-scale farmers.
The estimate highlights the potential for climate and input-cost shocks to damage farm output and food-system activity worldwide. It signals broad production risk, but does not identify a specific commodity price move.
edie.netNov 9, 2026After 3,207 past report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 2,389 past report events, Soybeans moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.9%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 2,447 past report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.8%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 349 past report events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.0% to +2.0%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
