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DTN reports that the August WASDE surprised the market, with corn production at 13.901 billion bushels, yield at 169.5 bushels per acre and planted acres at 90 million, all above pre-report estimates. December corn fell 25 cents to limit losses, September wheat fell 25 to 27 cents, and November soybeans fell 12.5 cents, while the soybean report was mildly supportive.
Corn supply well above trade estimates and lower US corn export and ethanol use forecasts weigh on feed grain prices, while the soybean report gives only slight support.
dtnpf.comDana MantiniAug 13, 2019After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
DTN confirms the bearish WASDE (13.9 bn bu production, 169.5 yield, 90M acres) above trade estimates sent December corn limit down, a direct supply-driven shock.
The August WASDE put corn production, yield and acres above pre-report estimates, so December corn fell to limit losses on larger supply.
