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Strategie Grains raised its EU soft wheat yield forecast slightly to 143.8 million tonnes, from 143.9 million in March, well above 135.8 million in 2016. EU wheat exports were lifted by 300,000 tonnes to 23.5 million on strong Turkish demand, and end-season EU wheat stocks are seen at 10.1 million tonnes, the lowest in 13 years.
Tighter EU wheat carry-out and firm export demand support wheat prices, even with a large crop, as Black Sea and EU supplies compete for Turkish and other import business. Dry soil in Spain and France is a downside risk to yields if rain does not come soon.
grainsprices.comGate.BGApr 18, 2017After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 180 past bullish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.7%), and -0.6% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 770 past neutral report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
