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A Nature Communications study published August 23, 2024 shows that preseason yield forecasts for maize and wheat are skillful at lead times up to a year ahead of harvest for a share of harvested area. The strongest skill is found in Southeast Africa, Southeast Asia, and parts of South and Central Asia, Australia and Southeast South America.
Better early warning of crop failure could reduce surprise supply shocks, but the research has no immediate effect on current supply or prices.
nature.comAnderson, Weston, Shukla, Shraddhanand, Verdin, Jim, Hoell, Andrew, Justice, ChristinaSep 1, 2024After 770 past neutral report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 406 past neutral report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.5%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
