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RaboResearch outlines the 2023 wheat picture: US wheat area rose 9% to a seven-year high, but dryness has hurt winter wheat and a late spring affects spring wheat. Canadian area is slightly higher, EU crop is in good shape, and Black Sea and Australian output are expected to fall in the next cycle.
Lower expected Black Sea and Australian production in 2023/24 supports the export outlook and could firm prices relative to the current bearish trend.
sfs.org.auApr 30, 2023After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 180 past bullish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.7%), and -0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
