
The dollar held its recent gains after US October payrolls rose by 165,000, above expectations of 65,000, and unemployment declined to 4.1%. Markets raised the implied probability of a December Federal Reserve rate hike, while the euro remained near its lowest level since May 2025.
Stronger employment and increased rate-hike expectations support the dollar relative to the euro, potentially raising the cost of dollar-priced imports for euro-area buyers.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 533 past bearish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.2%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.