South Korea’s agricultural outlook center forecast its international grain futures price index to rise 1.2% in the fourth quarter from the third quarter, to 132.4, citing Black Sea export disruptions and higher oil prices. It projected the feed-grain import cost index to fall 3.9%, to 129.9, mainly because the won strengthened against the dollar; it also forecast a high probability of El Niño conditions from November through January.
Disrupted Black Sea exports and higher oil-related biofuel demand could support international grain prices, while the stronger won could lower costs for Korean feed buyers. The forecast therefore points to firmer global grain prices but lower local-currency import costs.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.