USDA's Grain Transportation Report shows strong grain transport demand in Q4 2024, with Class I rail grain carloads up 5% from Q4 2023 and total 2024 originations up 8%. The January WASDE cut 2024/25 corn production to 14.9 billion bushels and soybean production to 4.4 billion bushels.
Lower US corn and soybean crop estimates combined with strong disappearance support prices for feed grains and meal, while winter weather adds early-2025 transport risk.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 414 past bullish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.