
A USDA Foreign Agricultural Service report issued July 7 forecasts China's feed demand rising 4.5 million tonnes in marketing year 2022-23, led by hog feed. Rice has been substituting for corn and wheat, which are near record highs, though corn rations are expected to return.
Stronger Chinese feed demand supports import and domestic demand for corn and meal, while rice substitution caps corn prices. The net effect is firm grain demand with some competition from cheaper alternatives.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 88 past bullish report events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +2.5% over 20.
After 414 past bullish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.