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BIMCO warns that the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on ships and ports in the Black Sea are clouding the dry bulk outlook for 2027 and 2028. It forecasts supply growth of 3-4% outpacing demand growth of 0.5-2.5% if the strait stays closed, with capesize deliveries accelerating.
Supply growth outpacing demand points to weakening dry bulk freight rates over the coming years, which lowers ocean freight costs for grain and meal imports. Energy and fertiliser supply disruption from Hormuz also raises input cost concerns for feed producers.
worldcargonews.comNov 1, 2026Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
