
US diesel retail prices hit $5.553 a gallon, with ULSD futures reaching a record $5.8595 intraday before collapsing at the April close. US distillate stocks were reported 23% below pre-pandemic seasonal averages, and the US embargo on Russian fuel is pushing refined product exports.
Tight distillate supplies and strong export demand keep diesel and freight costs elevated, raising the cost of feed production and delivery. Continued tightness supports energy-linked feed input prices.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.