A sharp crude-oil selloff on November 4 pulled down CBOT soybean oil futures and lowered soybean oil export values in Argentina and Brazil. Stronger export basis levels in both countries partly offset the futures decline.
Lower petroleum prices reduce support for soybean oil used in biodiesel and renewable diesel, transmitting energy-market weakness into vegetable oils. This pressured soybean oil prices, although firmer basis levels cushioned the decline in South American export values.
After 40 past bearish macro events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.8% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -4.5% to +1.7%), and -1.5% over 20.
After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 312 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.