
The rupiah weakened to 18,109 per U.S. dollar at the November 6 opening as global oil prices rose, adding pressure to Indonesia’s budget. WTI gained 2.72% to $90.52 a barrel and Brent rose 3.88% to $98.29, well above the government’s $70-per-barrel budget assumption.
Higher oil prices increase Indonesia’s import and fiscal costs, which can weigh on the rupiah and raise domestic energy and transport expenses for feed supply chains. The oil-price move is supportive for crude benchmarks and the currency move raises imported-input costs.
After 487 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.0%), and +1.5% over 20.
After 323 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -2.9% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.